Baltics Unimpressed Over Claims That Putin Could Attack Them Soon

US media channels The Wall Street Journal and CNN reported that, according to US intelligence assessments, Putin could try to escalate and test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country, possibly targeting Poland or the Baltics. Various defence officials and experts from the Baltics are very critical of these claims, calling them extremely foolish and exaggerated speculations that only serve the Kremlin’s narrative of sowing distrust among NATO members.

Key Developments This Week

  • Experts dismiss NATO attack claims: Former head of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Rainer Saks calls the Wall Street Journal article “extremely foolish,” saying Russia is not making such plans and the report works more to Russia’s advantage by allowing it to manipulate information
  • Latvian Defence Minister responds: Latvian Defence Minister Raivis Melnis says a direct military, conventional Russian attack on NATO is not currently possible, as Russia is stuck in Ukraine and cannot afford to fight on two fronts. Any Russian “little green men” would be neutralised
  • Hevi Optronics factory: Estonian tech firm Hevi Optronics, co-owned by German defence tech unicorn Quantum Systems, will build a new factory near Tallinn in Tabasalu with a €10 million investment for serial production of high-tech sensors and stabilized sensor platforms
  • Baltic Trust 26 exercise: Military exercise Baltic Trust 26 held at Selija military range in southern Latvia from August 3 to 14, jointly organized by Latvian National Armed Forces and NATO Communications and Information Agency, with approximately 650 participants from NATO member states, Ukraine, Australia and Japan
  • Lithuania defence tech funding: Lithuanian government selects five defence tech projects to receive €8.88 million under the EU’s STEP framework, including Kongsberg NanoAvionics satellite platforms, Astrolight laser communication terminals, and 8devices AI-powered military drone platform
  • Estonian politics in turmoil: Two MPs from ruling parties — Kalev Stoicescu (chairman of the National Defence Committee) and Meelis Kiili (Major General in reserve) — leave their parties and become unaffiliated, turning the majority government into a minority government overnight
  • ESA space startups: Three Estonian space startups — Triops Technologies, HETK Systems and ORMIA Systems — each receive €60,000 in development grants from the European Space Agency’s Business Incubation Center Estonia
  • Incap defence revenue: Electronics manufacturer Incap Corporation, with a production plant on Estonia’s Saaremaa island, reports 21.1% revenue growth to €130m in the first half of 2026, driven by strong defence industry orders
  • Defence Innovation Day: Tallinn will host Defence Innovation Day on 21 September as the kickoff of Estonian Defence Week 2026, expected to convene more than 4,000 participants from across Europe and allied nations
  • Latvian Dual-Use Export Forum: More than 150 participants from 19 countries are expected at the second Latvian Dual-Use Export Forum on 6–7 September in Rezekne, on the EU and NATO eastern border, with representatives from around 50 international and 120 Latvian companies
  • Defence funding opinion: Siim Sukles, Undersecretary for Defence Industry and Innovation at the Estonian Ministry of Defence, writes about how to turn defence funding into producible, deliverable and usable equipment, noting Estonia plans to keep defence expenditure at no less than 5% of GDP 2027–2029

Defence Industry Dimension

The week’s developments underscored the tension between perceived external threats and the Baltics’ actual defence posture. While experts firmly rejected US intelligence-sourced claims of an imminent Russian attack on NATO, the region continued rapid defence industrialisation — from Hevi Optronics’ sensor factory expansion to Lithuania’s STEP-funded defence tech projects and NATO’s largest drone defence exercise in Latvia. Estonia’s political upheaval, with key National Defence Committee figures leaving ruling parties, adds domestic uncertainty at a time when all three Baltic states are channelling record spending into defence capabilities and industrial capacity.