The Key to Ending the War in Ukraine May Be in the Hands of the Baltics

Commander of Ukraine Unmanned Systems Forces, Major Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, says in an interview to Postimees that the Baltic states are still misjudging the military threat from Russia and must prepare more robustly for a possible Russian attack. His core recommendation is to create a “death zone” on the Russian border with drones and build an infrastructure of underground fiber-optic cables to totally monitor the entire border. He outlined a five-step action plan: create a 2–5 km wide death zone, lay underground fiber-optic cables along the entire Baltic border, develop short-range air defence, create at least one drone brigade per Baltic state, and build the ability to strike enemy logistics at depth.

Key Developments This Week

  • Latvian PM endorses SSD2027: Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs met with Exponaut organisers and endorsed Supply, Security & Defence Expo 2027 to be held 16–17 June in Riga, calling military defence the most important thing for the Eastern Flank
  • DEMZ munitions plant in Lithuania: Lithuania signs agreement with Ukrainian defence company DEMZ (Dnipro Electromechanical Plant) to build a munitions assembly plant near Balbieriškis, creating 450 jobs, with construction expected to begin autumn 2026 and production starting end of 2027
  • Astrolight laser terminals: Lithuanian defence tech company Astrolight awarded €1.6 million under the European Strategic Technologies Platform (STEP) to scale up production of its POLARIS laser communication terminals for secure, jam-resistant data links
  • Nebius AI factory concerns: Dutch cloud company Nebius will launch its Tallinn AI Factory, the largest in the Baltics, but Estonian internal security service KAPO is concerned about links to Russia as Nebius was formerly Yandex N.V. The 22 MW facility will be hosted by Greenergy Data Centers near Tallinn
  • Vilnius dual-use tech hub: Vilnius is building an ecosystem for dual-use technologies, with the creation of the Competence Center for Autonomous, Remotely Operated and Connected Systems (ComARC) at VILNIUS TECH, supported by €8m investment
  • Threod Systems new CSO: Estonian defence tech company Threod Systems appoints Reio Orasmae, former Business Development Manager of Tesco UK, as its new Chief Sales Officer to lead international sales expansion
  • Ukrainian drone shot down in Latvia: NATO fighter jet shoots down a Ukrainian drone that entered Latvian airspace in Balvi region on August 14, believed to have been diverted by Russian electronic warfare during a strike on targets in Leningrad oblast
  • Broswarm raises funding: Vilnius-based defence tech startup Broswarm, building the world’s lightest synthetic aperture radar for UAV-based mine detection, raises €409,000 from NGL Ventures, a syndicate of 61 angel investors
  • Ukraine Recovery Conference: Estonia will host URC 2027 on 27–29 January in Tallinn, the highest-level international event ever held in Estonia, with organising costs potentially reaching €20m. Expected attendees include President Zelenskyy and European Commission President von der Leyen
  • Ukraine temporary protection change: Estonian government extends temporary protection for Ukrainian war refugees until March 2028 but excludes those who have not fulfilled military service obligations and lack legal permission to leave Ukraine
  • Estonia SAFE loan: Estonia will receive up to €2.34 billion in long-term loans under the EU’s SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program for defence investments including air defence, military vehicles, artillery shells and ammunition
  • Latvia warhead controversy: Former Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds denies PM Kulbergs’ claim that the Ministry of Defence “forgot” to purchase warheads for anti-drone systems, calling it disinformation and a pre-election campaign attack ahead of October 3 parliamentary elections

Defence Industry Dimension

The week’s most striking message came from Ukraine’s drone warfare commander Madyar, whose concrete five-step plan for Baltic border defence reflects hard-won frontline experience. His argument — that the key to ending the war in Ukraine lies in convincing Russia that wider military ambitions against the Baltics are futile — reframes Baltic defence spending as a strategic lever in the broader European security equation. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s DEMZ munitions plant deal and Astrolight laser terminal funding, Estonia’s €2.34 billion SAFE loan, and the growing SSD2027 expo in Riga all point to an accelerating defence industrial buildout across the region. The Nebius AI factory controversy highlights the delicate balance Baltic states face between attracting high-tech investment and managing security risks from companies with Russian origins.