Baltic Presidents Demand NATO Upgrade Air Policing to Air Defence Mission

The three Baltic presidents issued a joint statement calling on NATO to transform its current Baltic Air Policing mission into a full air defence mission and to deploy counter-drone capabilities in the region. The demand followed a tense week of drone incursions that saw a NATO F-16 shoot down a drone over Estonia, Lithuanian leaders evacuated to shelters, and a drone crash and explode in a Latvian lake.

The incidents underscore how Ukraine’s intensifying long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure on the Baltic Sea have spilled over into allied airspace, with at least 24 drone incursions into Baltic airspace since early 2025.

Key Developments This Week

  • Drone shootdown: A Romanian Air Force F-16, operating under NATO Baltic Air Policing from Lithuania, shoots down a drone in southern Estonia on May 19 after it entered Estonian airspace
  • Lithuania evacuations: Lithuanian president, prime minister, and parliament evacuated to secure locations on May 20 after a drone was believed to have entered the country’s airspace from Belarus. Air traffic at Vilnius Airport suspended
  • Latvian drone explosion: A drone crashes into Lake Drīdzis in eastern Latvia on May 23 and detonates on impact with the water, just 20km from the Belarus border
  • Detection gap: Estonian defence industry specialist warns the country may wait years for drone detection systems due to global demand and 6-12 month delivery times
  • Polish commitment: Poland announces it will deploy fighter jets to Ämari Air Base in Estonia for Baltic Air Policing — Polish Deputy PM calls the drone incidents proof that “Russia’s war of aggression has a direct impact on our security”
  • Paldiski quay: Port of Tallinn opens a new €64 million deep-water quay at Paldiski South Harbor for heavy military equipment and oversized cargo — the only heavy-cargo maritime site on the Baltic Sea’s eastern coast
  • US supply chain integration: US defence giants Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon visit Estonia to identify local companies for supply chain integration. Estonian company TOCI signs MoU with Northrop Grumman
  • Romania UGV programme: Milrem Robotics teams with Hanwha Aerospace to jointly pursue Romania’s unmanned ground vehicle programme
  • Electronic warfare: Russia jams the navigation signal of a jet carrying UK Defence Secretary John Healey as it returns from visiting British troops at Estonia’s Spring Storm exercise
  • Canadian investment: Canada’s foreign minister visits Latvia and Estonia, with a major Canadian drone manufacturer reportedly seeking to establish a European production base in the Baltics

Defence Industry Dimension

The drone incursion crisis has accelerated demand for counter-UAS systems, drone detection networks, and layered air defence — capabilities that Baltic defence companies are actively developing and fielding. With delivery times for established systems stretching to years and the threat growing weekly, the region faces a window where locally developed, rapidly deployed solutions may be the only viable short-term answer.